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Listen: Trump, Trade Wars, and Tense Politics - How 2025 could unfold. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the themes that will shape the economy, inflation and interest rates…
Rates Spark: Don’t expect the relief to last long
11 小时之前 · Room for a downward test in yields, even if just to assess how lower yields feel The market has now seen two better-than-expected month-on-month inflation numbers in a row now, on core PPI on Tuesday and now core CPI on Wednesday. Not that 0.2% is super low. But it it tolerable. If we were to keep ...
US inflation relief, but an extended Fed pause still looks likely
19 小时之前 · US consumer price inflation has come in at 0.4% month-on-month/ 2.9% year-on-year for headline and at 0.2%/3.2% for the core (ex food and energy). The headline was in line with expectations, but the core rate was a touch better than the 0.3% MoM rate anticipated – the core rate, it turns out, was ...
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How things can go wrong – or right – for the global economy
2024年10月10日 · Two alternative scenarios for the economic outlook. The global economic outlook hinges on whether we’re heading for a US recession, whether China can escape the current cycle of falling property prices and weak sentiment, and whether we see a cooling in geopolitical tensions.
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THINK Ahead: Mixed inflation data | articles | ING Think
5 天之前 · THINK Ahead for Central and Eastern Europe. Poland (Adam Antoniak). NBP rate decision (Thu): Polish policy rates will remain unchanged in January.The National Bank of Poland's policy stance turned more hawkish in December as Governor Adam Glapiński highlighted the inflation risks and attempted to convince the markets that a discussion on rate cuts would be initiated in late 2025 rather than ...
China’s data dump shows that time is running out to achieve this …
2024年9月14日 · Retail sales showed consumption momentum continuing to falter. Retail sales growth fell to 2.1% YoY in August, down from 2.7% YoY in July, lower than consensus forecasts though barely managing to avoid reaching a new post-pandemic low.
Rates Spark: Mounting concerns keep up the steepening
2024年9月25日 · Mounting macro concerns also keep the EUR steepening dynamic in place. In the eurozone, some of the main macro concerns centre around Germany. Disappointing data over the past two days; Monday’s PMIs and Tuesday’s Ifo, have pushed markets to expect a cut in October as the base case now – close to 16bp was priced as of Tuesday reflecting a greater than 60% implied probability of a cut.
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