“The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025,” they wrote, citing data from their kinked Phillips curve framework. According to BCA, the framework suggests a nonlinear ...

That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...

When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

That would mirror the verdict of the inverted yield curve which has suggested a U.S. recession is more likely than not for the past 2 years. The Sahm rule forecasts recessions based on a 0.5% rise ...