A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the non-linearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the ...

The resolution of the inverted 10-year and 3-month yield curve usually signals a recession down range. Inflation expectations are reflected in the term premium, which has increased considerably ...

The U.S. 2-/10-year slope inverted in mid-2022, and we are still waiting for the recession that was allegedly predicted by the yield curve. For those of us who are not yield curve maximalists ...

The Phillips curve posits that rising wages should lead ... Does Inflation Lead to a Recession? Inflation can lead to a recession. If prices are too high due to inflation and wages have not ...

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