“The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025,” they wrote, citing data from their kinked Phillips curve framework. According to BCA, the framework suggests a nonlinear ...

That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...

The resolution of the inverted 10-year and 3-month yield curve usually signals a recession down range. Inflation expectations are reflected in the term premium, which has increased considerably ...

When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

That would mirror the verdict of the inverted yield curve which has suggested a U.S. recession is more likely than not for the past 2 years. The Sahm rule forecasts recessions based on a 0.5% rise ...