“The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025,” they wrote, citing data from their kinked Phillips curve framework. According to BCA, the framework suggests a nonlinear ...

The U.S. 2-/10-year slope inverted in mid-2022, and we are still waiting for the recession that was allegedly predicted by ...

Despite relatively high interest rates, the chance of a recession in 2025 is estimated to be relatively low, though that ...

That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...

When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...

While the yield curve is inverted, that doesn't mean the closely watched recession indicator is predicting a downturn ahead, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. For years, he has been saying ...

"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said. "This causality channel is much different than in the past." And the inversion itself also isn't the final call on a recession, as experts have ...

The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely viewed as a signal the U.S. economy would likely slip into recession in the near future. An inverted yield curve occurs when ...